Renascience takes on the crease beater market and CellSource falls on a slowing growth trend

"Bio-Venture Stock Price Weekly Report" that watches the stock prices of bio-startups listed on the Japanese stock market on a weekly basis. The closing price on Friday, March 18, 2022 was up for 44 stocks and down for 6 stocks compared to the closing price on the weekend of the previous week (March 11). The Japanese stock market was strong this week, the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) rose for the fifth straight business day, and bio stocks were repurchased in a wide range of stocks.

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During this period, the highest rate of increase was at + 49.6% at the Green Earth Institute . Renascience was second with + 24.2%, followed by PeptiDream with + 17.8%. On the other hand, in descending order of decline rate, CellSource is -20.5%, 3-D Matrix is ​​-12.2%, and Stella Pharma is -11.4%.

On March 18th, the daily price limit was 498 yen (+ 19.1% compared to the previous day). On the 17th, a clinical study of RS5614, a plasminogen activation inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) inhibitor, which is the company's main pipeline, with Tokyo Medical and Dental University Hospital for FGF23-related hypophosphorus rickets. It was announced that a joint research contract had been signed for the implementation of the above, and it seems that it was viewed as a material.

FGF23-related hypophosphorus rickets has become a nationally designated intractable disease, and is a disease that impairs bone growth and metabolism due to excessive action of FGF23, which lowers the concentration of phosphate in the blood. Although it is a rare disease, its market is known to be large. This is because it is an indication for "Crease Vita" (brosmab), which is expected to grow into Kyowa Kirin's first blockbuster. Crease Vita has previously stated that Kyowa Kirin is aiming for peak sales of 150 billion yen, and even most recently, it expects global sales of 105.2 billion yen in FY12 / 2022.

According to the company, a joint study with Northwestern University has shown that PAI-1 is an important factor in controlling FGF23 homeostasis. In addition, the company's PAI-1 inhibitor (TM5441) was found to be effective as a therapeutic agent for FGF23-related hypophosphatemic rickets in experiments using mice. TM5441 is a synergistic drug of RS5614, and clinical research will be conducted with RS5614.

Although this contract is in the stage of clinical research, if its effectiveness is confirmed there, the possibility of out-licensing will increase, and it is thought that it is being bought from that expectation. Regarding RS5614, an option contract has been signed between Daiichi Sankyo and Renascience for the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pneumonia and other respiratory diseases, and the pharmaceutical industry is also interested. I think I can get it.

On March 17, the daily price limit was 707 yen (+ 16.5% compared to the previous day). SMBC Nikko Securities has raised its target stock price, which seems to be the effect. In December 2021, StemRIM's licensed redasemtide to Shionogi announced that it had achieved its primary endpoint in a domestic phase 2 clinical trial in patients with acute stroke. With this announcement, StemRIM's stock price temporarily exceeded 1,000 yen.

However, the price continued to decline from around the year-end and New Year holidays due to factors such as the deterioration of market conditions, and it fell to around 600 yen last weekend. It can be said that it was easy to buy back because the price range raised by the material for the success of Phase 2 was almost lost. At the financial results briefing on March 11, StemRIM CEO Masatsune Okajima said, "A milestone will occur at the start of the global phase 3 trial by Shionogi. Details are not disclosed, but it will be a considerable amount. It seems that expectations for the start of Phase 3 and milestone income are gathering.

In addition, at this financial results briefing, he mentioned gene therapy for epidermolysis bullosa. The company aims to develop an ex vivo gene therapy that introduces a normal type VII collagen gene into a patient's autologous mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) with a lentiviral vector. With regard to epidermolysis bullosa, multiple gene therapy programs using transgenic cells and viral vectors are underway overseas, and it is possible that they will appear in 2022 at the earliest. For the development of redasemtide for epidermolysis bullosa, the development of gene therapy for StemRIM is urgently needed because the authorities have requested additional case data and the application for approval has been delayed.

On March 16th, the price was 274 yen (-22.6% compared to the previous day), which is a stop price. The factor seems to be the downward revision of business results announced on the 15th. As for the business forecast for the fiscal year ending April 2022, the company initially expected its business revenue to be 2,379 million yen, but revised it to 1,509 million yen. The reason is the re-expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the company explained that "the rapid spread of Omicron strains has postponed the unnecessary and urgent surgery targeted by our company on a large scale, especially in Europe and the United States, and the sales performance has deteriorated." are doing. In addition, due to the decrease in sales, inventory turnover was delayed, the conversion to products by the new manufacturing method with a significantly reduced cost rate was delayed, and the cost rate was not expected to fall completely. It is said that there is.

However, the company's hemostatic agent-related sales are steadily increasing, and this downward revision is also considered to be a temporary factor. For this reason, it seems that there will be no major changes in the company's growth path in the future, and the prices have returned on the 17th and 18th. The company's medium-term management plan expects operating profit to be profitable in the next fiscal year (April 2023), but the impact of this downward revision on the plan is under scrutiny, and the company is investigating after the fiscal year ending April 2023. It will be announced again.

On March 17, the price was 2830 yen (-19.8% compared to the previous day), which is a stop price. In the financial results for the first quarter of 2022 (November 2021 to January 2022) announced on the 16th, the progress rate of sales and operating income was only 22% to 24% of the initial earnings forecast. .. In particular, sales were flat compared to the previous quarter (September-November 2021), showing a trend of slowing growth. The market was expecting a surprise from the company, which has repeatedly revised its business performance upwards, and it seems that the progress rate was very disappointing.

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Ranking	Company name	Stock price (closing price)	Rise and fall rate
March 11	March 18
1	Green Earth Institute	563	842	49.6%
2	Renascience	401	498	24.2%
3	PeptiDream	1728	2035	17.8%
Four	Pharma Foods	1859	2164	16.4%
Five	Stem rim	637	727	14.1%
6	Kidswell Bio	375	423	12.8%
7	Anges	293	329	12.3%
8	Kringle Pharma	716	798	11.5%
9	Perseus Proteomics	346	382	10.4%
Ten	Modalis	316	347	9.8%
11 11	Immuno-Biological Laboratory	290	318	9.7%
12	Delta-Fly Pharma	1183	1297	9.6%
13	Medicinova	265	290	9.4%
14	CellSeed	132 132	144	9.1%
15	Transgenic	384	418	8.9%
16 16	Sosei Group	1372	1490	8.6%
17 17	Stemcell Institute	2825	3065	8.5%
18 18	canvas	167	181	8.4%
19 19	Funpep	207	224	8.2%
20	Ribomic	150	162	8.0%
twenty one	Helios	1120	1209	7.9%
twenty two	SymBio Pharmaceuticals	726	783	7.9%
twenty three	Susmed	1045	1123	7.5%
twenty four	Kubota Pharmaceutical Holdings	136 136	146	7.4%
twenty five	PhoenixBio	465	498	7.1%
26	Medinet	43	46	7.0%
27	Oncolys Biopharma	561	599	6.8%
28 28	Carna Biosciences	970	1035	6.7%
29	OncoTherapy Science	62	66 66	6.5%
30	Reprocell	208	221	6.3%
31	De Western Therapeutics Institute	188	199	5.9%
32	Nanocarrier	245	258	5.3%
33 33	MEDRx	111	116	4.5%
34	Soiken Holdings	312	326	4.5%
35	Takara Bio	2205	2299	4.3%
36	Chiome Bioscience	172	179	4.1%
37 37	GNI Group	1281	1325	3.4%
38	Human Metabolome Technologies	585	605	3.4%
39 39	BrightPath Bio	92	95	3.3%
40	RaQualia Pharma	758	781	3.0%
41 41	Japan Tissue Engineering	473	487	3.0%
42	Precision System Science	397	407	2.5%
43	Solasia Pharma	81	82	1.2%
44	Euglena	746	754	1.1%
45 45	Terra	79 79	78 78	-1.3%
46	DNA Chip Research Inc.	435	423	-2.8%
47 47	SanBio	1526	1393	-8.7%
48	Stella Pharma	687	609	-11.4%
49	3-D Matrix	345	303	-12.2%
50	Cellsource	3325	2643	-20.5%